05 მარ New type of war
Experts will be studying this war closely, dissecting its elements, writing textbooks and comprehensive reports.
My thoughts so far.
So, why is Ukraine winning?
Putin is widely known for his hybrid tactics, but Ukraine taught him a lesson (also, it seems Putin failed to draw conclusions from the recent actions of Azerbaijan because a) he had no time to assess them; b) he’s ignorant; c) the army is obsolete and inert, being incapable of change).
Ukraine is demonstrating a new type of war, a semi-symmetric one. That is a mix of regular Army troops (powerful but rather heavy, including in a literal sense) with the Territorial Defense Forces.
At the same time, the TDF isn’t guerrillas or regular forces. These are light, highly mobile detachments (groups) armed with modern light weapons.
Why are they proving effective and successful?
1. They are indeed highly mobile.
Both in decision-making (no need to get multi-layered approvals for action) and in maneuvering.
2. They are excellently armed and equipped.
3. They have in their disposal large warehouses in the rear with quick access to replenishments, including as regards food, fuel, arms, and ammo.
4. Stable communications and excellent, swift interaction between groups within TRO detachments.
The situation is totally different for the Russian invasion forces: their logistical support sucks, their motivation sucks, and so do their mobility and orientation as their large and heavy convoys remain very vulnerable.
At the same time, wherever Ukraine needs tougher and systemic, heavy blows, there’s the Armed Forces in place.
There’s more reasons why Ukrainians are winning.
* They’re highly organized
The country is now a big anthill, where the rear and the front work as one mechanism. This may seem like chaos to an outsider, but if you know how the anthill is set up, how people contribute for the sake of their common goal, it gets clear. This was exactly the case during the Maidan Revolution of Dignity, too.
* They’re creative
Ukrainians are really creative. I don’t know any more nations that could even come close to competing with them. And this war already knows thousands of examples.
* They have a spirit of warriors, a spirit of the free people.
Speaking of the Russians – not even close…
Add motivation and asymmetry, and you get this perfect victory cocktail.
Ukrainians stand on their land.
They are warriors – skillful and fearless.
Russia has no chance.